2020/11/02
Now that Boris has made the fatal announcement (before consulting Parliament), there will be no going back. Indeed, already certain sources are puffing the idea that the lockdown will not end in December . . .
So I have done my own research into the latest figures for Wk 43, to see if anything has changed since week 42.
The Public Health England week 44 (up to week 43) (download here) “flu-like” report shows Covid positive tests ever-rising – so maybe we have it (or maybe we don’t - the test isn't definitive and is known to give false positive results anyway), but if we aren’t getting sick then who cares? As usual these meaningless numbers are analysed every which way, but can’t tell us who is sick and who is not. They are a travesty.
So if we want hard facts we must look to the hardest facts presented which may be the most difficult to fudge - deaths.
“Covid” deaths are shown rising (continuing the trajectory evident for week 42), “flu” deaths are still flat-lining as close to zero as may be, and “excess deaths from all causes” now rising just slightly above the expectation for this time of year. However, Euromomo, also showing up to week 43, reports no excess deaths across western Europe except in Spain, Italy, and Belgium, which show a minimal excess.
No UK nation is showing excess of death above seasonal norms, according to Euromomo.
It is perhaps surprising that excess deaths are not yet significantly in evidence in the UK, in view of the earlier withdrawal of non-Covid NHS care during the "first wave".
The report shows fluctuations in GP “syndromic surveillance” and “NHS 111 assessments" but indicates no untoward rising trend currently. “Covid-positive” admissions to hospital and to ICU/HDU are rising but again we do not know if they are ill from Covid, only that they tested positive . . .
Whilst all this could be clearer, it hardly amounts to proof of imminent raging pandemic – at most the equivalent of a national sniffle, or the result of disrupting NHS services back in March.
As usual, it shows that it is mostly the aged who are dying “with Covid”, but in truth, the aged die every year in a predictable pattern and are doing so this year too, on schedule. We are not yet immune from death, whether the proximate trigger is flu, Covid, or any other ailment.
Judging by this report, the way out of this pandemic is very very simple and very quick – put SAGE back in its box, stop the frantic testing (except as mandated by a clinician), allow clinicians to record the real cause of death according to their clinical judgement rather than a made-up one-size-skews-all 28-day-covid-test rule, then monitor the real statistics - and let the NHS and the world go back to normal business without political interference.
Will it happen? Not whilst everyone is still pretending that the tests indicate illness, the virus is deadly, and the 28-day-covid-test-rule reflects the real cause of death. None of these things are true.
Until the foundations of the misinformation are destroyed, the misinformation will continue and the Government will have its way.
2020/11/03
The House of Commons Select Committee on Science and Technology interview Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance - 2hrs 30mins.
For a short written summary from someone who may be considered an unfriendly journalist, read this.
My observation is that they are still relying primarily on modelling. Models are not evidence, they are projections which are created by a modeller, they perform exactly as the modeller specifies, and are thus subject to human error, as Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College already demonstrated.
