2020/10/25
Protests against Covid restrictions reprised this week-end in London, Naples, and Rome.
Daily Covid deaths in the UK have risen to around 175 (7 day avg) (1 in 325,000 population), as against 1335 expected deaths from all causes week 41. Covid admissions to hospital, and to intensive care / high dependency units in England were both running at 1 per 200,000 population in the same week (PHE week 42 flu/Coronavirus report).
In Italy the latest deaths per day number 106 (7 day avg) or 1 in 570,000 population (Worldometers).
Meanwhile only in Belgium and Spain does Euromomo record any noticeable excess mortality . . . so if Covid deaths (and other deaths due to Covid measures?) are going up, which other deaths are going down to compensate?
Numbers of "Cases" in both countries are heading for Alpha Centauri before Christmas but we also know that:
- these positive test results are not real cases, since real cases require support from associated symptoms and diagnosis by a doctor
- many of those tested are asymptomatic
- the tests are not 100% accurate and we don't know the expected percentage of tests that will return a false positive result
- the test identifies specific fragments of RNA/DNA but cannot identify if these fragments belong to a whole virus.
Strangely, the PHE Week 43 Report (download) (page 30 and on) shows NHS 111 assessments and GPs Consultations (respiratory, flu and Covid) sporting a small temporary increase at the end of September (cold weather snap?) which quickly faded back to "normal" levels in October, utterly unlike hospitalisations reported over the same period.
So what can we say with any confidence?
- Current rates of actual sickness and death are no cause for alarm in either country
- The test results are close to meaningless as they stand - although the percentage of positive test results per head of population might be meaningful. Sadly statistically reliable figures are unavailable due to the way that testing is conducted - why did the WHO not mandate proper statistical sampling of the population from the beginning?
- The attribution of death to Covid-19 is skewed by the counting method. Patients are routinely tested on admission and regularly thereafter. A positive test result within the 28 days prior to death is sufficient to attribute it to Covid-19 even if the primary cause of admission lay elsewhere. There have been reports of patients acquiring Covid whilst in hospital. The age profile of those most seriously affected has not changed - there are around ten times as many over 65s admitted to hospital as there are under 65s, which suggests that comorbidities are still in play.
- The expected overall rate of deaths from all causes remains remarkably impervious to Covid so far this autumn.
- We cannot predict how the death and hospitalisation figures will progress from here.
I leave the last word to the ever-unflappable Ivor Cummins (here talking about Ireland and Sweden - but does it make a difference?):
Like / Dislike this video here.
