2020/11/15
Briefings for Britain review the current state of Cummings-exit-inspired turmoil in nbr 10, and how this may impact the Brexit negotiations currently being (we must all hope) concluded in the very near future.
From the point of view of resuming our life as an independent nation beholden in law to no other, which is what we voted for, it is clearly important that our negotiators stick to their guns and don't at the last ditch fall for the usual oft-repeated tales of imminent trading catastrophe and eternal impoverishment. Some remainers still seem to think we might be so persuaded - if only they repeat them loudly enough and long enough.
Accordingly Bfb have published a report that seeks to show that actually, a WTO exit cannot be as catastrophic as is still in some quarters portrayed.
"Experts of every stripe need to be humbler and more realistic if they want to be taken seriously. Predictions of imminent economic disaster if the UK voted to leave the EU proved to be hopelessly wrong. The more pessimistic modelling of the impact of no-deal is similarly flawed, relying on implausible assumptions to come up with numbers that fail the basic test of common sense. We hope that the report will set the agenda for a more balanced, evidence-based approach towards modelling the economic impact of Brexit"
"Recent attempts to compare the long-term impacts of no-deal and Covid-19 are misleading. If anything, the impact of the pandemic strengthens the case for retaining no-deal as an option, both by reducing some of the potential costs and increasing some of the benefits"
As an independently-minded site we are happy to draw attention to their good work.
As a matter of perspective, the Covid measures so assiduously imposed by our own and continental governments have already wrought such damage that industries on both sides of the channel will be only too keen to get back to normal trade whatever terms may be in place. They will bring to bear whatever pressure is necessary to persuade their respective governments that punitive restrictions must be abandoned ASAP.
Secondly, outside the EU, the UK can quickly firm up agreements with the rest of the world, a number of which (eg: with Japan) have already been finalised. An agreement with the USA will likely follow as soon as their current internal affairs are clarified.
And lastly, it is no longer a question of whether or not we can stop the process of leaving the EU as we have already legally left. We would have to negotiate rejoining - and that could not politically be done without a new referendum (which would - barring very unforeseen circumstances - be lost).
Being "independent" but still beholden to the EU without representation would be a dogs breakfast which could not endure.
