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2020/10/27

The Daily Mail poses the question, noting that "influenza cases nosedive by 98% across the globe"!

I would ask if it's more a question of 'has Covid killed off those susceptible to flu?'. If that's the case then we would expect flu+covid together to look like the flu does most years - but does it?

The figures are tricky to interpret. The Public Health England Report for week 43 (up to week 42 - download here) provides interesting reading. There are reams of analysis concerning the "cases" identified by testing - but we know that the PCR tests are not reliable, a positive result is not a medical "case" until diagnosed by a doctor, and to talk of increasing "cases" in absolute numbers is not based upon statistical random sampling and takes no account of the number of tests actually done; if it indicates anything it indicates potential "cases" discovered rather than potential "cases" per head of population. The whole testing reporting regime is so full of holes that it cannot be taken seriously.

So in cavalier fashion we pass over the (grossly inflated?) case figures and look at GP consultations, NHS 111 assessments, hospitalisations, and deaths attributed to Covid, in the hope that these figures may be based on a firmer footing.

Primary Care

The NHS 111 graphs show a peak in calls for "colds/flu" at the end of September, rapidly collapsing to near-normal by mid-October - and "Covid-19" calls flat-lining since the end of May, rising very modestly in September and falling off into October. Phone and on-line assessments both show the similar picture.

The GPs "In-Hours" and "Out of Hours" graphs similarly show consultations running at or even below base-line expectations for the time of year.

My own recollection of our end of September trip to Wales is dominated by the extreme cold for that time of year (ice on the window-panes!) so maybe that had something to do with the contemporaneous peak in consultations.

Secondary Care

But hold on! Hospital admissions, ICU/HDU admissions, and deaths all show steeply rising "Covid-19" graphs after week 35, with "flu" flat-lining as close to zero as you could wish.

As we might now expect, hospital admissions (Covid) below the age of 65 are a small fraction of the total, the vast majority being in the over 75s.

Emergency Dept attendances for Covid-19 rose roughly linearly since 2nd week in September whilst those for "acute respiratory" peaked slightly above base-line in mid September but have otherwise been running below expectation.

I note that all hospital admissions are routinely tested for Covid-19, and retested regularly.

Secondary care shows a steeply rising case-load of Covid at obvious odds with the primary care situation. Are Covid people somehow bypassing the normal primary care route to be admitted directly to secondary care?

Meanwhile, "antibody seroprevalence" (Covid-19 antibodies detected in donated blood) has arguably been close to flat-lining overall since end of June . . .   not exactly indicative of a quickly-spreading virulent epidemic?

 

All-Causes Deaths

Despite all the above, daily excess all-causes deaths are shown running (except for a big bump in March/April and a tiny bump in mid-August) rigorously to base-line expectations!

And Finally . . .

At the end of the document we see the proud declaration that PHE supports the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Go figure.